Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

9 hours ago

11.06.25 MIDCO AFTERNOON COMMENTS

🌽 Corn Market Update
Selling across the ag space didn't discriminate on Thursday, as lower to sharply lower price action was across mostly the whole of the CBOT. Like the sharp up days in recent weeks, we don't have a lot of explanation for today's decline other than profit taking and the idea that prices maybe just ran too far, too fast on the headlines in the soy space. At the end of the day, ending stocks north of 2.0 bil bu don't argue for spot futures to be anywhere near $5 and this is maybe as good an explanation as any for the sudden shift in mood. That said, its also worth noting that the selling through the day didn't press the market to new lows for the week, which could be pointed to as maybe the one positive for the session. This level, at 4.27 3/4, will be the line in the sand for the bull camp going into the weekend tomorrow.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

It was an ugly day in the soy complex on Thursday, with beans and meal seeing sharply lower price action that pressed both markets to new lows for the week. Like we mentioned in our corn comments, there isn't really anything specific to point to for the sudden change in direction from Wednesday, but with the sheer amount of unknown that continues to be present in the space, we would note that these large, wide-ranging swings with little justification will likely be more common in the weeks/months ahead. The same themes otherwise also apply here; profit taking following more than a dollar run-up over the past month is not surprising, and with little new on a known basis regarding exports or ending stocks on the balance sheet, prices here likely also went a little too far, too fast.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

While beans and meal got the most fanfare throughout the day, the wheat market was actually the downside leader on a percentage basis, with spot Chicago futures shedding nearly 3.5% of their value during the session. Here too, profit taking was noted as one of the main drivers of the lower action, with there also being ideas that most of the recent rally was the result of fund short-covering that has possibly now dried up as they get their position closer to net-even, or at least not as short as they had been throughout most of the back half of summer and into fall. Otherwise, there's still not a lot new on the global side of things that could be pointed to as reason for the Thursday sell-off, with US values still mostly above those from other major world exporters. ... See MoreSee Less

Ludlow Coop Elevator Company

15 hours ago

11.06.25 MIDCO MORNING COMMENTS

Good morning. Mostly lower trade in the ag space to start Thursday, with a quiet afternoon/evening of news leading prices to drift lower this morning in the corn, bean and wheat markets, while the product markets are seeing spread activity to start the day. We touched on it a bit yesterday, but speaking specifically to the corn and beans, that the markets have made highs in generally the same area every day this week seems to be telling that there is either some sort of value near current levels, or traders realize that the rally maybe went a little too far, too fast and are now taking pause to see whether the developments that got us here will actually come to fruition. The headlines are great, but bigger picture price direction from here over the next couple months will be a product of actual export data and whether the newly announced trade business cuts into current ending stocks estimates. Remember, soybean futures are already at their highest level in more than a year almost purely on speculation that this business shows up; to expect an explosive rally that just blows the top off without any evidence of bushels being shipped and still no weather issues on the other side of the world would seem somewhat foolish to us at this point. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 5-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-8 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is giving back most of what it gained yesterday and is down around $7/ton, while soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are again quietly mixed for the most part, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 50 points. ... See MoreSee Less